PHAC Agent-Based Models on COVID-19

Agent-based models (ABMs) can systematically simulate actions and interactions of independent “agents” that can represent people, places and/or objects within a predefined environment. These models aim to evaluate the success of public health interventions depending upon community structure and population dynamics.

The COVID-19 Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) Modelling Group

COVID-19 has spread across the world, and the associated morbidity and mortality, spawning extensive international research to inform both clinical and public health evidence-based actions to mitigate its effects.  The Public Health Agency of Canada, as part of its mandate, is monitoring, preparing and responding to the COVID-19 outbreak to ensure minimal impacts to the…

PHAC Gathering Risks Model: On-line Calculator

Simple mathematical modelling approaches to assessing the transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 at gatherings This paper explores the factors that influence the risk of disease transmission at gatherings and the potential effects of mitigation strategies. This mathematical model is built on general principles and provides a simple and pragmatic application of these principles in order to…

PHAC Age-Stratified SEIR Compartmental Model on COVID-19

Assessing the impact of varying levels of case detection and contact tracing on COVID-19 transmission in Canada during lifting of restrictive closures using a dynamic compartmental model This study (with plain-language summary) underlines the importance of a cautious approach to lifting restrictive closures in this second phase of the epidemic. This approach includes efforts by public…

PHAC SEIR Model on COVID-19

Modelling scenarios of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Canada This paper (with plain-language summary) describes predictive modelling of COVID-19 in general, and efforts within the Public Health Agency of Canada to model the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Canadian population to support public health decisions. The article describes…

Epidemiology of COVID-19 – Evidence from China

Emerging infectious diseases can spread dramatically and lead to large-scale outbreaks, as seen in pandemics of influenza H1N1, MERS, SARS-CoV-1 and, most recently, SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19).

Join us and Dr. Benjamin Cowling who will overview the natural history of COVID-19 and shares recent findings from his epidemiological research.