PHAC Gathering Risks Model: On-line Calculator

Canada Communicable Disease Report (CCDR) Publication Summary CCDR Article – Modelling approach to assessing risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at gatherings This paper explores the factors that influence the risk of disease transmission at gatherings and the potential effects of mitigation strategies. This mathematical model is built on general principles and provides a simple and pragmatic…

PHAC Age-Stratified SEIR Compartmental Model on COVID-19

Canada Communicable Disease Report (CCDR) Publication Summary CCDR Article – Contact tracing of COVID-19 transmission during restrictive closures in Canada This study underlines the importance of a cautious approach to lifting restrictive closures in this second phase of the epidemic. This approach includes efforts by public health to identify cases and trace contacts, and to encourage Canadians to…

The COVID-19 Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) Modelling Group

COVID-19 has spread across the world, and the associated morbidity and mortality, spawning extensive international research to inform both clinical and public health evidence-based actions to mitigate its effects.  The Public Health Agency of Canada, as part of its mandate, is monitoring, preparing and responding to the COVID-19 outbreak to ensure minimal impacts to the…

PHAC Agent-Based Model on COVID-19

Canadian Medical Association Journal (CMAJ) Article CMAJ Article – Projected effects of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions to prevent resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada This paper describes the results of predictive modelling of several nonpharmaceutical measures used to prevent further transmission of COVID-19. A Public Health Agency of Canada research team used an aged-structured agent-based…

PHAC SEIR Model on COVID-19

Canada Communicable Disease Report (CCDR) Publication Summary CCDR Article – Modelling Scenarios of the Epidemic of COVID-19 in Canada The article describes predictive modelling of COVID-19 in general, and efforts within the Public Health Agency of Canada to model the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Canadian population to support public health…

Epidemiology of COVID-19 – Evidence from China

Emerging infectious diseases can spread dramatically and lead to large-scale outbreaks, as seen in pandemics of influenza H1N1, MERS, SARS-CoV-1 and, most recently, SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19).

Join us and Dr. Benjamin Cowling who will overview the natural history of COVID-19 and shares recent findings from his epidemiological research.

Mathematical Modelling in Public Health Planning: Flu Vaccine

In public health, mathematical modelling helps us answer difficult, real-world questions and understand complex relationships between biological, demographic, and environmental factors. Modelling helps answer infectious disease-related questions like “What is the best vaccine to protect an elderly population at increased risk of infection from seasonal influenza?” Modellers interpret the model outcomes and draw conclusions to…

Mathematical Modelling in Public Health: Tuberculosis

In public health, mathematical modelling helps us answer difficult, real-world questions and understand complex relationships between biological, demographic, and environmental factors. Modelling helps answer infectious disease-related questions like “What are the potential effects of three different interventions on a specific disease?” Modellers interpret the model outcomes and draw conclusions to make accurate, evidence-driven and transparent…

An Overview of Mathematical Modeling for Pandemic Control

The emergence of COVID-19 has revealed the need for more effective model-based policies that meet the real-time challenges and surging demands of a pandemic-related emergency.

Join us and Dr. Ashleigh Tuite who will present an overview of mathematical modelling for public health pandemic control (presentation prepared by Dr. Amy Greer).

Synergies in Infectious Disease Modelling for Public Health

Join the National Collaborating Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCCID) for a new, interdisciplinary webinar series! The Synergies Series harnesses the knowledge of experts from several disciplines and nations. Collaborators share research evidence, context-based insights, information on data availability, and practical tools to develop better infectious disease models and evidence-based public health policies for the control…

PHAC Models on COVID-19

Canada’s response to Covid-19 is being guided by data and mathematical modelling. The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) has shared information with Canadians from their COVID-19 modelling work. The results from the data indicate that it is critical and essential to physically distance, detect and isolate cases of COVID-19, identify and quarantine close contacts, and prevent international infection…