An Overview of Mathematical Modeling for Pandemic Control

Introduction

The emergence of COVID-19 has revealed the need for more effective model-based policies that meet the real-time challenges and surging demands of a pandemic-related emergency.

Join us and Dr. Ashleigh Tuite who will present an overview of mathematical modelling for public health pandemic control (presentation prepared by Dr. Amy Greer).

Date: Wednesday, August 12, 2020

Time: 1:00 p.m. – 1:45 p.m. Central Daylight Time

Request a copy of the presentation

Join the National Collaborating Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCCID) for the first event in a new, interdisciplinary webinar series: Synergies in Infectious Disease Modelling for Public Health.

The Synergies Series harnesses the knowledge of experts from several disciplines and nations. Collaborators share research evidence, context-based insights, information on data availability, and practical tools to develop better infectious disease models and evidence-based public health policies for the control of infectious diseases. Together, participants raise questions of interest to public health that modelling can contribute to. The series begins with topics on COVID-19, with the potential to grow.

Update

With apologies, and due to unforeseen circumstances, Dr. Amy Greer is unable to deliver the webinar. Instead, we welcome Dr. Ashleigh Tuite, who will deliver content prepared by Dr. Greer, and participate in the Q&A. We gratefully acknowledge the support of both our collaborators.

Synopsis

In the context of a relentless global pandemic, the value of mathematical modelling to support policymakers in managing public health crises has never been more apparent. Models are being used to predict disease burden, simulate mitigation strategies, estimate the cost-effectiveness of interventions, and assess which vaccines to employ in particular populations. Such advantages are showing modelling to be a critical resource in pandemic planning and complex decision-making. However, the emergence of COVID-19 has also revealed the need for more effective model-based policies that meet the real-time challenges and surging demands of a pandemic-related emergency. And this will not be accomplished without 1) improving our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of mathematical models, and 2) creating greater synergy among modellers and public health professionals.

Dr. Amy Greer, Canada Research Chair in Population Disease Modeling and Associate Professor in the Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College at the University of Guelph, presents an overview of mathematical modelling for public health. Her presentation highlights the conventional methodology of simulation and models in the context of public health to address vital needs for pandemic-control policies. She will discuss the evidence produced by mathematical models, which play a key role in shaping policy decisions in pandemics. Dr. Greer draws from experience as a senior scientist with the Centre for Communicable Diseases and Infection Control at the Public Health Agency of Canada to reflect on existing gaps between infectious disease modellers and public health colleagues. Her presentation will help identify opportunities for greater collaboration on optimal model-based policies.

Join us for the live webinar and Q&A session, with follow-up discussion topics posted to the Mod4PH discussion forum.

Access

Access instructions will be emailed to all registrants and posted on this page prior to the event.

We will be using the Adobe Connect platform for this webinar. In advance of our event, please ensure you download the Adobe Connect App.

Sound Quality! Webinar sound quality is optimal when you use the Adobe Desktop Application (as opposed to the Web Browser Application). You may be prompted to download a plugin prior to opening the application. Upon opening the App, simply copy and paste the webinar access link in the space provided. Enter as a ‘Guest’ with your full name to enter the room.

We encourage participation through your computer, you will be able to see the presentation slides on your screen and listen to the audio through your computer speakers or headphones.

Please test the compatibility of your computer with Adobe Connect software HERE.

New Speaker

Dr. Ashleigh Tuite is an infectious disease epidemiologist, mathematical modeller, and assistant professor at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health. Dr. Tuite’s research program focuses on the use of mathematical modelling and other quantitative methods to improve decision-making for emerging, re-emerging, and endemic communicable diseases. She uses models to project the spread of communicable diseases and better understand and quantify the health, economic, and social implications of different control measures and policies. She is particularly interested in the use of mathematical models to synthesize and communicate complex information and uncertainty.

Dr. Ashleigh Tuite, PhD, MPH, MSc

Presentation Prepared By

Dr. Amy Greer is the current Canada Research Chair in Population Disease Modeling and Associate Professor in the Department of Population Medicine at the University of Guelph. Dr. Greer has previously held scientific positions in the Centre for Communicable Diseases and Infection Control at the Public Health Agency of Canada and the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto. Her research explores the introduction, spread, dynamics, and control of infectious diseases in populations. She integrates empirical data with mathematical models to test the mechanisms leading to the epidemic spread of pathogens and identify optimal intervention and control strategies. Dr. Greer’s research aims to examine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of both public health and veterinary health interventions in order to make informed decisions regarding public health policy.

Dr. Amy Greer, BSc, MSc, PhD