PHAC Agent-Based Models on COVID-19

Projected effects of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions to prevent resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada

This paper (with plain-language summary) describes the results of predictive modelling of several nonpharmaceutical measures used to prevent further transmission of COVID-19. A Public Health Agency of Canada research team used an age-structured agent-based model of the Canadian population to simulate the effects of current and projected levels of interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Case detection and isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, physical distancing and community closures were assessed independently and in combination.

Download the appendix here.

Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada

This study (with plain-language summary) used an age-stratified agent-based model based on population demographics and healthcare capacity in Canada. It tests the idea that protecting people who are in vulnerable age groups by shielding them from infection, or by vaccination, allows restrictions for other age groups to be lifted.

Download the appendix here.

Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada: What could have happened?

This study (with plain-language summary) illustrates what could have happened, in terms of infections, hospitalizations and deaths related to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Canada, if public health (PH) measures had not been used to control the COVID-19 epidemic and if restrictions had been lifted with low levels of vaccination, or no vaccination, of the Canadian population. The timeline of the outbreak in Canada and the PH interventions used to control the outbreak are reviewed.

Download the accompanying infographic here.

Download the appendix here.

COVID-19 Modelling Glossary of Terms

Using and Understanding the Mathematical Model

1. To view and run this file, you will need the free version of AnyLogic, available here.

2. After downloading AnyLogic, download the following file:

PHAC Modelling Code for AnyLogic

Unzip the downloaded folder. The .alp file should automatically open with AnyLogic.

3. Download the PHAC instruction guide:

Instructions for Using the COVID-19 PHAC Agent-Based Model

Model Summaries