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Behind the Curtain of Mathematical Modelling : Inside a collaborative modelling project on public health strategies for syphilis management

Case study on the application of mathematical modelling to assess the impact of a newly-designed intervention on the burden of syphilis in Winnipeg, Manitoba.

Their story illustrates how mathematical modelling can provide timely evidence to guide decision-making by public health planners and practitioners throughout the implementation of a new intervention.

The lessons they share may help to demystify modelling and reveal the benefits of collaborations between modellers and public health personnel.

Published: 2018

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Project No. 395

Mathematical Modelling in Public Health

A mathematical model is a virtual experiment set up to test a hypothesis. It creates a controlled environment where complex relationships between biological, environmental, demographic and behavioural factors can be represented.

For public health, mathematical models can be used to test different “what if” scenarios and the results can help inform policy, programs and practice.

NCCID has released two new resources about modelling and public health. A new video, a partnership with NCCMT, introduces public health to modelling. As a companion piece, NCCID developed a case study of a Promising Practice of a collaboration between public health in Winnipeg and modelers in Toronto, to assess the benefits of new interventions to reduce syphilis infections in Winnipeg.

Published: 2018

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Glossary of Terms for Infectious Disease Modelling: A Proposal for Consistent Language

A glossary of terms with their definitions that can be used to conceptualize and parameterize models consistent with those applied in public health, epidemiology, and clinical settings related to infectious diseases.

Published: 2016

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Project No. 256

Effectiveness of School Closure for the Control of Influenza: A Review of Recent Evidence

School closures continue to be considered by public health as a way to manage the spread and severity of influenza. This project provides an up-to-date review and assessment of studies on the effectiveness of closing schools.

Published: 2014

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Project No. 180

Optimal Treatment Strategies for Remote and Isolated Communities

Mathematical modelling, simulations, and statistical analysis were used to make recommendations in this paper for the effective use of antiviral drugs for treatment and prophylaxis in remote and isolated communities

Published: 2014

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Project No. 160

A Logical Modelling Framework for Influenza Infection

This document provides details of a proposed logical framework for influenza infection, to enhance the utility and uptake of modelling for public health response.

Published: 2014

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Project No. 196

Agent-based modelling of Chlamydia trachomatis transmission in a Canadian subpopulation

Mathematical modelling was conducted to describe Chlamydia transmission dynamics in a high-risk subpopulation and evaluate potential disease-control strategies.

Published: 2014

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Project No. 167

Review of Terms Used in Modelling Influenza Infection

A review of terms commonly used in modelling studies of influenza infection spread and control. The objective is to understand the similarities and discrepancies between definitions of the same terms used in different studies.

Published: 2014

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Project No. 195