The COVID-19 Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) Modelling Group

COVID-19 has spread across the world, and the associated morbidity and mortality, spawning extensive international research to inform both clinical and public health evidence-based actions to mitigate its effects.  The Public Health Agency of Canada, as part of its mandate, is monitoring, preparing and responding to the COVID-19 outbreak to ensure minimal impacts to the health of Canadians.

The COVID-19 PHAC Modelling Group was formed in January 2020 and mostly comprises modellers and epidemiologists from the Public Health Risk Sciences Division of the National Microbiology Laboratory (NML), with statisticians, modellers and epidemiologists from other Agency directorates.

Role of the group :

  • Developing models to support PHAC public health decisions
  • Providing advice to other Government Departments to support decisions

PHAC models on COVID-19

Canada’s response to COVID-19 is being guided by data and mathematical modelling. Models can be used to understand the epidemiology of COVID-19, inform how public health measures may be used to control the epidemic and provide early warning analyses and forecasts of the epidemic. The COVID-19 Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) Modelling Group has shared information with Canadians from their work with mathematical models.

You can find the group’s models and publications here [].

PHAC modelling group reports 

The COVID-19 PHAC Modelling Group prepares this publication every two weeks. The objective is to share the results of this Group on domestic situational awareness, international situational awareness, on dynamic modelling studies looking at the COVID 19 epidemic and public health measures and any Special Reports that may arise from the Modelling Group or the external partners.

Full reports can be requested from the PHAC Modelling Group Secretariat: